The decision
Which plausible assumption reverses the conclusion?
Source inputs
| Campaign / product | Expected baseline units | Promotion units | Regular / promotion price | Variable unit cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Example refill bundle Synthetic sensitive repeat decision | 1,000 | 1,800 | €50 / €40 | €25 |
What to inspect
Open a row’s full contribution bridge, check the day-window alignment and cost allocation, then vary the expected baseline and response in Scenario studio. The portfolio result includes the recorded refunds, supplier support and displacement; unrecorded effects remain excluded.
Read the accompanying decision guide
Interpretation limits
The figures are generated from the same deterministic engine used by the workbench. They are not evidence from a merchant or a randomized test. A supplied baseline can make an offer look attractive or unattractive, so the baseline deserves the same scrutiny as the campaign’s realized sales.
How to read this case
The central contribution difference is +€1,700. At 1,800 campaign units, a no-promotion baseline above 1,068 units reverses its sign.
Case-specific assumptions
- The baseline and volume ranges in the guide are sensitivity assumptions, not a confidence interval.
- Price and volume sliders are independent; the workbench does not estimate demand from a price change.