The decision
Which launch claims are unsupported by a zero historical benchmark?
Source inputs
| Campaign / product | Expected baseline units | Promotion units | Regular / promotion price | Variable unit cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Example launch kit Synthetic new-product launch | 0 | 500 | €30 / €24 | €10 |
What to inspect
Open a row’s full contribution bridge, check the day-window alignment and cost allocation, then vary the expected baseline and response in Scenario studio. The portfolio result includes the recorded refunds, supplier support and displacement; unrecorded effects remain excluded.
Read the accompanying decision guide
Interpretation limits
The figures are generated from the same deterministic engine used by the workbench. They are not evidence from a merchant or a randomized test. A supplied baseline can make an offer look attractive or unattractive, so the baseline deserves the same scrutiny as the campaign’s realized sales.
How to read this case
The supplied zero baseline gives €5,760 contribution change. Percentage lift is undefined, and the missing later-period measurement remains flagged.
Case-specific assumptions
- A zero supplied benchmark does not prove that all sales were caused by the campaign or were new to the portfolio.
- Later displacement is deliberately blank to distinguish missing evidence from an observed zero.