Entirely synthetic case. The expected baseline and commercial inputs are deliberately supplied assumptions.
The decision
Did the sales lift pay for the discount?
Product–campaign rows1
Contribution change-€1,300
Gross unit lift60.0%
Source inputs
| Campaign / product | Expected baseline units | Promotion units | Regular / promotion price | Variable unit cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Example everyday bag Synthetic margin trap | 1,000 | 1,600 | €50 / €40 | €25 |
What to inspect
Open a row’s full contribution bridge, check the day-window alignment and cost allocation, then vary the expected baseline and response in Scenario studio. The portfolio result includes the recorded refunds, supplier support and displacement; unrecorded effects remain excluded.
Read the accompanying decision guide
Interpretation limits
The figures are generated from the same deterministic engine used by the workbench. They are not evidence from a merchant or a randomized test. A supplied baseline can make an offer look attractive or unattractive, so the baseline deserves the same scrutiny as the campaign’s realized sales.
How to read this case
Revenue rises €14,000 while contribution falls €1,300 against the supplied baseline.
Case-specific assumptions
- All returns and later displacement are explicitly zero in this synthetic scenario.
- The additional unit volume is an input, not an identified causal effect.