The decision
Have returns already been netted from the imported quantity?
Source inputs
| Campaign / product | Expected baseline units | Promotion units | Regular / promotion price | Variable unit cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Example seasonal jacket Synthetic returns review | 800 | 1,000 | €50 / €40 | €25 |
What to inspect
Open a row’s full contribution bridge, check the day-window alignment and cost allocation, then vary the expected baseline and response in Scenario studio. The portfolio result includes the recorded refunds, supplier support and displacement; unrecorded effects remain excluded.
Read the accompanying decision guide
Interpretation limits
The figures are generated from the same deterministic engine used by the workbench. They are not evidence from a merchant or a randomized test. A supplied baseline can make an offer look attractive or unattractive, so the baseline deserves the same scrutiny as the campaign’s realized sales.
How to read this case
Full-refund revenue reduces campaign contribution from €15,000 to €11,000. Compared with a €20,000 baseline, contribution changes by −€9,000.
Case-specific assumptions
- The engine does not recover costs for returned stock automatically.
- A mature baseline return process is not separately modeled; use a fuller benchmark when that asymmetry matters.